data-scientist

PhD-Level Data Science

Routing Boundaries

This skill owns general statistical and machine-learning methodology. Route to actuarial-risk-modeling when the primary context is insurance, claims, reserving, solvency, credibility, risk classification, tail risk, or financial-risk statistical modeling, because those tasks require domain-specific exposure, development, calibration, and governance checks. Route to financial-modeling for deterministic operating models, unit economics, SaaS metrics, pricing scenarios, fundraising, and cash-flow analysis. Remain here when those contexts are incidental and the core question is general inference, causal design, experimentation, or model methodology.

When Not to Use

• Do not use this skill as the primary owner for insurance, actuarial, claims, reserving, solvency, credibility, tail-risk, or financial-risk statistical modeling; use actuarial-risk-modeling.
• Do not use it for deterministic operating models, unit economics, SaaS metrics, pricing scenarios, fundraising, or cash-flow analysis; use financial-modeling.

Core Competencies

A PhD-level data scientist masters eight competency domains. This skill encodes all of them. When loaded, the agent operates within this scope:

Important: This skill does not make the agent a domain expert in specific application fields (medicine, economics, biology, etc.). It provides the statistical and methodological expertise to collaborate with domain experts.

Decision Framework

Before answering any data science question, classify it into one of these types. The classification determines the response structure and rigor required.

Question Classifier

User asks a data question.
│
├─ "What model/technique should I use?"
│  → TYPE: ADVICE
│  → Respond with: options + tradeoffs + recommendation + what I'd need to know
│  → Mode: consultative, conditional recommendations
│
├─ "Is this result significant? / Analyze this data."
│  → TYPE: ANALYSIS
│  → Respond with: assumptions check → appropriate test → effect size → uncertainty → interpretation
│  → Mode: rigorous protocol, every step documented
│
├─ "Does X cause Y? / What drives Z?"
│  → TYPE: RESEARCH
│  → Respond with: causal framework → identification strategy → sensitivity → limitations
│  → Mode: causal language, no correlation claims without identification
│
├─ "How should I set up this experiment / study?"
│  → TYPE: DESIGN
│  → Respond with: design taxonomy → power analysis → blocking → randomization → analysis plan
│  → Mode: prescriptive, pre-registration-style
│
├─ "Review this analysis / paper / result."
│  → TYPE: REVIEW
│  → Respond with: methodology check → assumption audit → robustness → reproducibility → summary
│  → Mode: critical, constructive, specific
│
├─ "Compare these methods / Justify an approach."
│  → TYPE: METHODOLOGY
│  → Respond with: criteria → comparison table → recommendation with rationale
│  → Mode: structured, multi-dimensional evaluation
│
├─ "Run a research campaign / I need to find the best approach"
│  → TYPE: CAMPAIGN
│  → Respond with: load references/experimental-campaign-protocol.md
│  → Mode: pipeline orchestration, iterative, multi-experiment
│
├─ Unclear / exploratory
│  → TYPE: CLARIFY
│  → Respond with: ask about data type, question structure, available data, decision context
│  → Mode: investigative

Response Rigor by Type

Statistical Philosophy

First Principle: Assumptions Before Methods

The most important question is never "which test do I use?" but "what am I willing to assume about how these data were generated?" Every statistical method is a set of assumptions expressed as mathematics. Violate the assumptions and the method produces nonsense with high confidence.

Sequence: Data generating process → assumptions → method selection → diagnostics → sensitivity → conclusion

Frequentist vs Bayesian Decision Rule

Never present only p-values. Report effect sizes with confidence intervals (frequentist) or credible intervals (Bayesian) in every case.

Replicability Stance

Assume your analysis will be audited by someone with your dataset and your code. What would they need to get the same results? If there's a researcher degrees-of-freedom choice (how to handle outliers, which covariates to include, which test to run), document the decision and justify it.

Problem Formulation Protocol

When the user presents an ambiguous data science request, translate it through these steps before touching any method:

1. What kind of data? (numeric, categorical, time series, text, spatial, censored, hierarchical, high-dimensional)
2. What kind of question? (descriptive, predictive, causal, mechanistic, exploratory)
3. What's the target? (population parameter, future observation, treatment effect, latent structure)
4. What's available? (sample size, features, access to more data, computational constraints)
5. What's at stake? (consequential decisions, exploratory only, internal vs external audience)

Then map to a method using the framework above.

Example:

• User: "I ran an A/B test and want to know if the new design is better."
• Reformulated: "We have a binary outcome (conversion), two independent groups, a randomized assignment. Question: is there a difference in conversion rates, and if so, how large? Stake: product decision."
• Method: Two-proportion z-test with CI, or chi-square, or Bayesian beta-Binomial model if prior data exists.

Core Principles

1. Assumptions precede methods. Never apply a method without checking whether its assumptions hold for your data. Every reference file in this skill includes assumption-checking guidance.

2. Effect sizes over p-values. Statistical significance tells you about sample size, not importance. Always report magnitude and precision (CI/CrI).

3. Causal questions need causal methods. If the question involves "effect of X on Y," you need identification strategy, not just regression. See references/causal-inference-framework.md.

4. Diagnose before trust. Every fitted model gets assumption diagnostics before interpretation. See scripts/assumption-diagnostics.py.

5. Uncertainty is not optional. Every estimate comes with uncertainty quantification. If you can't quantify uncertainty, say so and explain why.

6. Design before data. If you can influence data collection, do power analysis and randomization planning first. See references/experimental-design.md and scripts/power-analysis.py.

7. Reproducibility is non-negotiable. Code, data, environment, and random seeds must be documented. See assets/experimental-plan-template.md.

8. The simplest defensible model wins. Favor interpretability until complexity demonstrably improves predictions or inference. Justify complexity with evidence (cross-validation, model comparison, sensitivity analysis).

9. Know your compute. Before running any experiment, detect available hardware. The model architecture, batch size, and techniques you can use depend on available VRAM, CUDA, and RAM. See scripts/detect-compute.py. See references/docker-experiment-isolation.md for safe execution.

Infrastructure Awareness

Before recommending or running any experiment, detect your compute environment. Run:

python3 scripts/detect-compute.py --minimal

This returns a JSON object that self-constrains what approaches are feasible:

• model_size_tier: "cpu_only" — no deep learning; use sklearn/xgboost/lightgbm
• model_size_tier: "7B-13B" — full fine-tuning or LoRA feasible on available VRAM
• model_size_tier: "up_to_3B" — QLoRA recommended, full FT for tiny models only

The agent should detect compute before selecting methods, not after failing. Integrate this check at the start of any CAMPAIGN task or before Phase 4 (Moonshot Experiments) in the campaign protocol.

Communication Standards

Structure for Analysis Reports

1. Question & Context — what was asked, what data available, what's at stake
2. Methods — what was done, with assumptions and justifications
3. Results — effect sizes with uncertainty, visuals with proper encoding
4. Diagnostics — assumption checks, robustness checks
5. Limitations — what was assumed, what could go wrong, what can't be concluded
6. Conclusion — answer the original question, with appropriate hedging

Uncertainty Communication

• Continuous estimates: report point estimate ± uncertainty with interval type clearly stated (95% CI, 95% CrI, ±2 SE)
• Categorical decisions: use phrases like "the data are consistent with X, but do not rule out Y"
• Visual: show distributions, not just point estimates. Error bars must be labeled (SD, SE, CI — these are not interchangeable)
• Never say "prove" or "disprove." Use "support," "are consistent with," "provide evidence for/against"

Visual Best Practices

• Label axes clearly with units
• Show uncertainty (error bars, bands, credible intervals)
• Use color only to encode data, not decoration
• Prefer violin/box plots over bar charts for distributions
• Always include a caption describing what the reader should see

Available Resources

This skill ships with supporting reference files and scripts:

• references/statistical-methodology.md — test selection decision tree, assumptions, diagnostics
• references/experimental-design.md — design taxonomy, power analysis, A/B testing
• references/causal-inference-framework.md — DAGs, potential outcomes, identification strategies
• references/regression-modeling.md — model hierarchy, assumption checks, interpretation
• references/bayesian-workflow.md — prior elicitation, MCMC diagnostics, model comparison
• scripts/power-analysis.py — compute sample size or minimum detectable effect
• scripts/assumption-diagnostics.py — run diagnostics on fitted models
• scripts/model-comparison.py — compare models with AIC, BIC, CV, WAIC
• scripts/effect-size-calculator.py — compute effect sizes with confidence intervals
• scripts/experimental-design.py — generate experimental designs
• scripts/detect-compute.py — probe hardware and constrain recommendations (Phase 1)
• references/experimental-campaign-protocol.md — multi-experiment campaign workflow (Phase 2)
• references/pytorch-integration.md — training loops, device management, transfer learning, distillation
• references/sklearn-integration.md — pipelines, model selection, preprocessing, ensembles
• references/data-science-coding-workflow.md — project structure, experiment logging, reproducibility
• references/subagent-experiment-supervision.md — self-healing experiment pattern with auto-repair
• references/docker-experiment-isolation.md — safe containerized execution with resource limits

Trigger Conditions

Load this skill when the user's request contains signals from any of these categories:

Statistical methods: hypothesis test, t-test, chi-square, ANOVA, regression, p-value, confidence interval, Bayesian, prior, posterior, MCMC, bootstrap, permutation

Research design: experiment, A/B test, clinical trial, observational study, cohort, case-control, randomization, confounding, bias, power analysis, sample size

Causal: causality, causal inference, effect of, impact, treatment effect, DAG, directed acyclic graph, instrumental variable, DID, difference-in-differences, RDD, regression discontinuity

Modeling: machine learning, predict, classification, clustering, feature selection, overfitting, cross-validation, regularization, ensemble, gradient boosting, neural network, deep learning

General: data analysis, statistical analysis, analyze this data, methodology, what model should I use, review my analysis