suede-churn-prevention

Suede Churn Prevention

Use this Suede retention playbook to reduce voluntary and involuntary churn through transparent cancel flows, bounded save offers, proactive signals, and payment recovery.

Before Starting

Check for product marketing context first: If .agents/product-marketing.md exists (or .claude/product-marketing.md, or the legacy product-marketing-context.md filename, in older setups), read it before asking questions. Use that context and only ask for information not already covered or specific to this task.

Gather this context (ask if not provided):

1. Current Churn Situation

• What's your monthly churn rate? (Voluntary vs. involuntary if known)
• How many active subscribers?
• What's the average MRR per customer?
• Do you have a cancel flow today, or does cancel happen instantly?

2. Billing & Platform

• What billing provider? (Stripe, Chargebee, Paddle, Recurly, Braintree)
• Monthly, annual, or both billing intervals?
• Do you support plan pausing or downgrades?
• Any existing retention tooling? (Churnkey, ProsperStack, Raaft)

3. Product & Usage Data

• Do you track feature usage per user?
• Can you identify engagement drop-offs?
• Do you have cancellation reason data from past churns?
• What's your activation metric? (What do retained users do that churned users don't?)

4. Constraints

• B2B or B2C? (Affects flow design)
• Self-serve cancellation required? (Some regulations mandate easy cancel)
• Brand tone for offboarding? (Empathetic, direct, playful)

How This Skill Works

Churn has two types requiring different strategies:

Voluntary churn is typically 50-70% of total churn. Involuntary churn is 30-50% but is often easier to fix.

This skill supports three modes:

1. Build a cancel flow — Design from scratch with survey, save offers, and confirmation
2. Optimize an existing flow — Analyze cancel data and improve save rates
3. Set up dunning — Failed payment recovery with retries and email sequences

Cancel Flow Design

The Cancel Flow Structure

Every cancel flow follows this sequence:

Trigger → Survey → Dynamic Offer → Confirmation → Post-Cancel

Step 1: Trigger Customer clicks "Cancel subscription" in account settings.

Step 2: Exit Survey Ask why they're cancelling. This determines which save offer to show.

Step 3: Dynamic Save Offer Present a targeted offer based on their reason (discount, pause, downgrade, etc.)

Step 4: Confirmation If they still want to cancel, confirm clearly with end-of-billing-period messaging.

Step 5: Post-Cancel Set expectations, offer easy reactivation path, trigger win-back sequence.

Exit Survey Design

The exit survey is the foundation. Good reason categories:

Survey best practices:

• 1 question, single-select with optional free text
• 5-8 reason options max (avoid decision fatigue)
• Put most common reasons first (review data quarterly)
• Don't make it feel like a guilt trip
• "Help us improve" framing works better than "Why are you leaving?"

Dynamic Save Offers

The key insight: match the offer to the reason. A discount won't save someone who isn't using the product. A feature roadmap won't save someone who can't afford it.

Offer-to-reason mapping:

Save Offer Types

Discount

• 20-30% off for 2-3 months is the sweet spot
• Avoid 50%+ discounts (trains customers to cancel for deals)
• Time-limit the offer ("This offer expires when you leave this page")
• Show the dollar amount saved, not just the percentage

Pause subscription

• 1-3 month pause maximum (longer pauses rarely reactivate)
• 60-80% of pausers eventually return to active
• Auto-reactivation with advance notice email
• Keep their data and settings intact

Plan downgrade

• Offer a lower tier instead of full cancellation
• Show what they keep vs. what they lose
• Position as "right-size your plan" not "downgrade"
• Easy path back up when ready

Feature unlock / extension

• Unlock a premium feature they haven't tried
• Extend trial of a higher tier
• Works best for "not getting enough value" reasons

Personal outreach

• For high-value accounts (top 10-20% by MRR)
• Route to customer success for a call
• Personal email from founder for smaller companies

Cancel Flow UI Patterns

UI principles:

• Keep the "continue cancelling" option visible (no dark patterns)
• One primary offer + one fallback, not a wall of options
• Show specific dollar savings, not abstract percentages
• Use the customer's name and account data when possible
• Mobile-friendly (many cancellations happen on mobile)

Read references/cancel-flow-patterns.md before designing a flow: it carries the patterns by industry and billing provider, the segment-specific variants, the post-cancel sequence, and screen mockups of the survey and offer steps.

Churn Prediction & Proactive Retention

The best save happens before the customer ever clicks "Cancel."

Risk Signals

Track these leading indicators of churn:

Health Score Model

Build a simple health score (0-100) from weighted signals:

Health Score = (
  Login frequency score × 0.30 +
  Feature usage score   × 0.25 +
  Support sentiment     × 0.15 +
  Billing health        × 0.15 +
  Engagement score      × 0.15
)

Proactive Interventions

Before they think about cancelling:

Involuntary Churn: Payment Recovery

Failed payments cause 30-50% of all churn but are the most recoverable.

The Dunning Stack

Pre-dunning → Smart retry → Dunning emails → Grace period → Hard cancel

Pre-Dunning (Prevent Failures)

• Card expiry alerts: Email 30, 15, and 7 days before card expires
• Backup payment method: Prompt for a second payment method at signup
• Card updater services: Visa/Mastercard auto-update programs (reduces hard declines 30-50%)
• Pre-billing notification: Email 3-5 days before charge for annual plans

Smart Retry Logic

Not all failures are the same. Retry strategy by decline type:

Canonical retry schedule: one schedule governs this skill — the manual retry table in references/dunning-playbook.md §Retry Schedule by Provider (Day 1 / 3 / 5 / 7 / 10, fifth attempt last before the grace period ends). Read it before configuring retries and do not restate a different schedule anywhere.

Dunning Email Sequence

Four emails on Day 0 / 3 / 7 / 10. The timing, tone, and full copy for each live in references/dunning-playbook.md §Dunning Email Sequence — read it before writing or configuring the sequence.

Dunning email best practices:

• Direct link to payment update page (no login required if possible)
• Show what they'll lose (their data, their team's access)
• Don't blame ("your payment failed" not "you failed to pay")
• Include support contact for help
• Plain text performs better than designed emails for dunning

Recovery Benchmarks

These bands are industry ranges for calibrating a recommendation. Never assert them as this product's result.

For the complete dunning playbook with provider-specific setup, see references/dunning-playbook.md.

Metrics & Measurement

Key Churn Metrics

Cohort Analysis

Segment churn by:

• Acquisition channel — Which channels bring stickier customers?
• Plan type — Which plans churn most?
• Tenure — When do most cancellations happen? (30, 60, 90 days?)
• Cancel reason — Which reasons are growing?
• Save offer type — Which offers work best for which segments?

Cancel Flow A/B Tests

Test one variable at a time:

How to run cancel flow experiments: Route the hypothesis, sample, duration, and stopping rule to suede-ab-testing. Use an authorized experimentation system that can assign users consistently and read each funnel step (survey → offer → accept/decline → confirm). Verify the system's current official implementation guidance, assignment behavior, and event readback before launch.

Common Mistakes

• No cancel flow at all — Instant cancel leaves money on the table. Even a simple survey + one offer saves 10-15%
• Not tracking save offer LTV — A "saved" customer who churns 30 days later wasn't really saved
• No post-cancel path — Make reactivation easy and trigger win-back emails, because some churned users will want to come back

Tool Integrations

This pack does not ship retention, billing, or analytics connectors. Select an authorized system from the user's actual stack and verify its current official documentation, account plan, test mode, and rollback path before configuration.

Capability Checklist

• Cancel-flow routing, survey capture, and an unobstructed final cancel action
• Stable experiment assignment and step-level event readback
• Pause, downgrade, and save-offer rules with explicit eligibility
• Payment-retry state, card-updater state, and customer-notification controls
• Audit history, test mode, role controls, and rollback or disable behavior

Implementation Routing

• Route message writing to suede-emails.
• Route event schemas and readback to suede-analytics.
• Route test design to suede-ab-testing.
• Treat billing retries, discounts, subscription changes, and activation as separately authorized mutations.

Halt Format for Billing Mutations

Before any change to a live billing object — retry rules, discounts, plan changes, pauses, cancellations, subscription state, or customer-facing billing messages — stop and emit this block, then wait. Inferred consent is not authorization, and "the user asked for a cancel flow" is not authorization to configure one.

HALT — billing mutation requires authorization

Mutation: <the exact change, e.g. "enable 5-attempt retry rule">
Objects touched: <provider, environment, subscriptions/customers/coupons affected, count>
Reversible by: <the exact rollback, or "not reversible">

Options:
1. Proceed in test mode only
2. Proceed on live objects as specified
3. Narrow the scope to <smaller set> and proceed
4. Abandon this mutation

Waiting for your choice.

Boundaries

• Do not obstruct cancellation, hide downgrade paths, manufacture urgency, or use deceptive retention friction.
• Do not change subscriptions, retry rules, discounts, billing objects, or customer messaging without explicit authorization.
• Do not claim saved revenue or churn reduction without a defined cohort, window, denominator, and verified payment state.
• Do not decide which individual customer should receive a sensitive offer from protected traits or unsupported inference.

Routing

• Need retention, dunning, or win-back messages -> use suede-emails.
• Need plan structure or offer economics -> use suede-pricing or suede-offers.
• Need paywall or trial-expiry UX -> use suede-paywalls.
• Need churn events or a controlled retention test -> use suede-analytics or suede-ab-testing.
• Acting as the subscriber to find, cancel, or dispute your own recurring charges -> use subscription-recovery. This skill is the merchant side only.
• From those skills, route cancellation and payment-recovery strategy back to suede-churn-prevention.